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Victoria vs CD Motagua — Liga Nacional 2018

Victoria
Victoria
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
3/31/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Victoria31%
×Draw26%
CD Motagua43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria
1.19
CD Motagua
1.43

CD Motagua creates 20% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 173 away

creates per match

Victoria
1.29
CD Motagua
1.47

allows per match

Victoria
1.39
CD Motagua
1.08

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par
CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

CD Motagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Victoria or draw
57%
Victoria or CD Motagua
74%
Draw or CD Motagua
69%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+
13%
CD Motagua wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals
70%
Victoria 2+ goals
33%
Victoria 3+ goals
12%
CD Motagua 1+ goals
76%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
42%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)
42%
CD Motagua (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.08 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + CD Motagua defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

CD Motagua attack 1.47 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Victoria scores more
31%
level
26%
CD Motagua scores more
43%

CD Motagua at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CD Motagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria vs CD Motagua

Victoria and CD Motagua drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards in La Ceiba.