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Victoria Rosport vs FC Differdange 03 — National Division 2018

Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
11/26/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 13Party-Rent-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Victoria Rosport26%
×Draw23%
FC Differdange 0350%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Rosport
1.21
FC Differdange 03
1.77

FC Differdange 03 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Victoria Rosport
1.32
FC Differdange 03
1.83

allows per match

Victoria Rosport
1.72
FC Differdange 03
1.10

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par
FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

FC Differdange 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw
50%
Victoria Rosport or FC Differdange 03
77%
Draw or FC Differdange 03
74%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
11%
FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
70%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
34%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
12%
FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
83%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
53%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
34%
FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.72 · 111 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 1.32 + FC Differdange 03 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Differdange 03 attack 1.83 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more
26%
level
23%
FC Differdange 03 scores more
50%

FC Differdange 03 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Victoria Rosport 0–1 FC Differdange 03

FC Differdange 03 beat Victoria Rosport 1-0 in National Division on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Party-Rent-Arena in Rosport.