Victoria Rosport 0–7 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Victoria Rosport

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 5

F91 Dudelange

E. Muratovic 90+1', 39'

M. Pokar 88'

D. Stolz 42', 2'

D. Sinani 20', 15'

9/29/2019

National Division · Round 7Party-Rent-Arena (Rousport (Rosport))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Victoria Rosport23%

×Draw21%

F91 Dudelange56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria RosportExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.04

Victoria Rosport

1.22

F91 Dudelange

2.04

F91 Dudelange creates 67% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 115 away

1.34

creates per match

2.37

1.71

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Victoria Rosport

1.34

F91 Dudelange

2.37

allows per match

Victoria Rosport

1.71

F91 Dudelange

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw

44%

Victoria Rosport or F91 Dudelange

79%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

77%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

9%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

70%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

34%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

12%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

87%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

60%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

29%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.71 · 109 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 1.34 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more

23%

level

21%

F91 Dudelange scores more

56%

F91 Dudelange at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

15'

20'

39'

42'

46'

K. Marques← J. Dallevedove

46'

P. Kasel← A. Biedermann

63'

C. Morren← D. Sinani

69'

R. Klapp← A. Bernier

71'

Pedro dos Santos← E. Brandenburg

76'

L. Mendy← D. Stolz

88'

M. Pokar

90+1'

E. Muratovic

Victoria

F91

⚽

⚽2

▼

Stolz

Garos

Bougrine

⚽2

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Thomé

46'▲K. Marques←▼J. Dallevedove

46'▲P. Kasel←▼A. Biedermann

71'▲Pedro dos Santos←▼E. Brandenburg

Victoria Rosport substitutes

MarquesKaselSantos

Manager: E. Ferrera

63'▲C. Morren←▼D. Sinani

69'▲R. Klapp←▼A. Bernier

76'▲L. Mendy←▼D. Stolz

F91 Dudelange substitutes

MorrenKlappMendy