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Vicenza Virtus vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
12/6/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus42%
×Draw27%
Nuova Cosenza30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.33
Nuova Cosenza
1.08

Vicenza Virtus creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 134 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.11
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.27
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
70%
Vicenza Virtus or Nuova Cosenza
73%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
58%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
19%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
74%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
38%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
15%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
66%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
29%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
58%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
42%
level
27%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
30%

Vicenza Virtus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Nuova Cosenza

Vicenza Virtus and Nuova Cosenza drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.