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Vicenza U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Vicenza U19
Vicenza U19
FT
3 – 0
AlbinoLeffe U19
AlbinoLeffe U19
9/23/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 2Stadio Comunale di Caldogno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Vicenza U1946%
×Draw23%
AlbinoLeffe U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza U19
1.79
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.44

Vicenza U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 63 away

creates per match

Vicenza U19
1.69
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.25

allows per match

Vicenza U19
1.64
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.90

finishing

Vicenza U19+0.00on par
AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza U19 ↓

AlbinoLeffe U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vicenza U19 or draw
69%
Vicenza U19 or AlbinoLeffe U19
77%
Draw or AlbinoLeffe U19
54%

Winning margin

Vicenza U19 wins by 2+
25%
AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vicenza U19 1+ goals
83%
Vicenza U19 2+ goals
53%
Vicenza U19 3+ goals
26%
AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals
76%
AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals
42%
AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vicenza U19 (draw refunded)
60%
AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

AlbinoLeffe U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza U19 attack 1.69 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.25 + Vicenza U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vicenza U19 scores more
46%
level
23%
AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more
31%

Vicenza U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vicenza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Vicenza U19 3–0 AlbinoLeffe U19

Vicenza U19 beat AlbinoLeffe U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldogno in Caldogno.