Viborg 2–1 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats

Viborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sonderjyske

1/12/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Viborg71%

×Draw18%

Sonderjyske11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViborgExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.76

Viborg

2.25

Sonderjyske

0.76

Viborg creates 196% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.14

creates per match

1.09

0.43

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Viborg

2.14

Sonderjyske

1.09

allows per match

Viborg

0.43

Sonderjyske

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viborg+0.00on par

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

Sonderjyske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Viborg or draw

89%

Viborg or Sonderjyske

82%

Draw or Sonderjyske

29%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+

47%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals

89%

Viborg 2+ goals

65%

Viborg 3+ goals

39%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

53%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

18%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)

86%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 2.14 + Sonderjyske defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sonderjyske attack 1.09 + Viborg defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Viborg scores more

71%

level

18%

Sonderjyske scores more

11%

Viborg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff