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Viborg vs Odense — Superliga 2018

Viborg
Viborg
Preview
17:00
Odense
Odense
7/24/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 1Energi Viborg Arena
Big match
47%
Viborg
model favours
47%24%29%

Viborg score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Viborg47%
×Draw24%
Odense29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg
1.67
Odense
1.25

Viborg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Viborg
1.46
Odense
1.06

allows per match

Viborg
1.44
Odense
1.89

finishing

Viborg-0.24scores less
Odense+0.14scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

Odense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Viborg or draw
71%
Viborg or Odense
76%
Draw or Odense
53%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+
25%
Odense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals
81%
Viborg 2+ goals
50%
Viborg 3+ goals
23%
Odense 1+ goals
71%
Odense 2+ goals
36%
Odense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)
62%
Odense (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Odense away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 1.46 + Odense defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Odense attack 1.06 + Viborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Viborg scores more
47%
level
24%
Odense scores more
29%

Viborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Viborg fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Viborg
Attack-heavy
Odense
Balanced
48%Possession52%
82%Pass accuracy80%
14.0ShotsBiggest gap9.7
1.79xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ViborgOdense

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Viborg
3
Draws
3
Odense
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 90%
1–21–32–13–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Viborg
WLWLD
Odense
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viborg face Odense (Superliga)

Superliga returns with Viborg hosting Odense. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Viborg host Odense at Energi Viborg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.