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Viborg vs Brondby — Superliga 2018

Viborg
Viborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brondby
Brondby
3/10/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21Energi Viborg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Viborg37%
×Draw25%
Brondby37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg
1.43
Brondby
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 132 away

creates per match

Viborg
1.52
Brondby
1.54

allows per match

Viborg
1.32
Brondby
1.33

finishing

Viborg+0.00on par
Brondby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

Brondby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Viborg or draw
63%
Viborg or Brondby
75%
Draw or Brondby
63%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+
18%
Brondby wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals
76%
Viborg 2+ goals
42%
Viborg 3+ goals
17%
Brondby 1+ goals
76%
Brondby 2+ goals
42%
Brondby 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)
50%
Brondby (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.32 · 81 matches

Brondby away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 1.52 + Brondby defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Brondby attack 1.54 + Viborg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Viborg scores more
37%
level
25%
Brondby scores more
37%

Viborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Viborg 1–2 Brondby

Brondby beat Viborg 2-1 in Superliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Energi Viborg Arena in Viborg.