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Vianés vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Varea
Varea
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 25Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Vianés25%
×Draw25%
Varea50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.01
Varea
1.56

Varea creates 54% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Varea
0.97

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
50%
Vianés or Varea
75%
Draw or Varea
75%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
9%
Varea wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
64%
Vianés 2+ goals
27%
Vianés 3+ goals
8%
Varea 1+ goals
79%
Varea 2+ goals
46%
Varea 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
33%
Varea (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Varea attack 1.81 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vianés scores more
25%
level
25%
Varea scores more
50%

Varea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianés vs Varea

Varea beat Vianés 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Viana in Viana.