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Vianés vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
River Ebro
River Ebro
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 12Campo Viana Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Vianés43%
×Draw26%
River Ebro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.48
River Ebro
1.21

Vianés creates 22% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
69%
Vianés or River Ebro
74%
Draw or River Ebro
57%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
21%
River Ebro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
77%
Vianés 2+ goals
43%
Vianés 3+ goals
19%
River Ebro 1+ goals
70%
River Ebro 2+ goals
34%
River Ebro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
58%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vianés scores more
43%
level
26%
River Ebro scores more
31%

Vianés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Vianés 3–1 River Ebro

Vianés beat River Ebro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Viana Hierba Artificial in Viana.