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Vianés vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Campo Viana Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vianés41%
×Draw27%
Haro Deportivo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.33
Haro Deportivo
1.13

Vianés creates 18% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
68%
Vianés or Haro Deportivo
73%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
59%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
19%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
74%
Vianés 2+ goals
38%
Vianés 3+ goals
15%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
31%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
57%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vianés scores more
41%
level
27%
Haro Deportivo scores more
32%

Vianés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Vianés 1–2 Haro Deportivo

Haro Deportivo beat Vianés 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Viana Hierba Artificial in Viana.