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Vianés vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alfaro
Alfaro
2/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Vianés27%
×Draw25%
Alfaro48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.09
Alfaro
1.56

Alfaro creates 43% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
52%
Vianés or Alfaro
75%
Draw or Alfaro
73%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
10%
Alfaro wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
66%
Vianés 2+ goals
30%
Vianés 3+ goals
10%
Alfaro 1+ goals
79%
Alfaro 2+ goals
46%
Alfaro 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
36%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vianés scores more
27%
level
25%
Alfaro scores more
48%

Alfaro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianés vs Alfaro

Alfaro beat Vianés 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.