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VfL Wolfsburg vs Verl — Friendlies Clubs 2026

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Preview
12:00
Verl
Verl
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
41%
VfL Wolfsburg
model favours
41%22%38%

Even after scoring first, VfL Wolfsburg win only 37%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg41%
×Draw22%
Verl38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg
1.92
Verl
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.83
Verl
2.20

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.50
Verl
2.00

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par
Verl+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Verl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw
62%
VfL Wolfsburg or Verl
78%
Draw or Verl
59%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
22%
Verl wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
85%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
57%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
30%
Verl 1+ goals
84%
Verl 2+ goals
55%
Verl 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
52%
Verl (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Verl away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.83 + Verl defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Verl attack 2.20 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more
41%
level
22%
Verl scores more
38%

VfL Wolfsburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of VfL Wolfsburg’s matches
  • 22% of VfL Wolfsburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • VfL Wolfsburg and Verl have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wolfsburg
WDDWL
Verl
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VfL Wolfsburg face Verl (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with VfL Wolfsburg hosting Verl. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.