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VfL Vichttal vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
CANC
14:00
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
11/8/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 9Sportplatz Dörenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

VfL Vichttal62%
×Draw18%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.70
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.50

VfL Vichttal creates 80% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 36 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
80%
VfL Vichttal or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
82%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
38%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
42%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
93%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
75%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
50%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
78%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
44%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
76%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.70

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
62%
level
18%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
20%

VfL Vichttal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VfL Vichttal host Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

November 8, 2020: VfL Vichttal take on Viktoria Arnoldsweiler in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VfL Vichttal host Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at Sportplatz Dörenberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.