VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07

VfL Osnabrück

Preview

13:30

SC Paderborn 07

8/1/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

46%

VfL Osnabrück

model favours

46%19%35%

2–2

likely score

84%

over 2.5 goals

81%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VfL Osnabrück46%

×Draw19%

SC Paderborn 0735%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL OsnabrückExpected goals in this matchSC Paderborn 07

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.17

VfL Osnabrück

2.50

SC Paderborn 07

2.17

VfL Osnabrück creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

3.00

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

VfL Osnabrück

3.00

SC Paderborn 07

1.33

allows per match

VfL Osnabrück

3.00

SC Paderborn 07

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Osnabrück+0.00on par

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabrück ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

VfL Osnabrück or draw

65%

VfL Osnabrück or SC Paderborn 07

81%

Draw or SC Paderborn 07

54%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabrück wins by 2+

28%

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

VfL Osnabrück 1+ goals

92%

VfL Osnabrück 2+ goals

71%

VfL Osnabrück 3+ goals

45%

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals

89%

SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals

64%

SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabrück (draw refunded)

57%

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabrück at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabrück attack 3.00 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.33 + VfL Osnabrück defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VfL Osnabrück scores more

46%

level

19%

SC Paderborn 07 scores more

35%

VfL Osnabrück at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "VfL Osnabrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Osnabrück

LWDLW

07

DDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff