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VfB Stuttgart vs Paris FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Preview
13:00
Paris FC
Paris FC
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
53%
VfB Stuttgart
model favours
53%21%26%

When VfB Stuttgart score first, they win 81% of the time

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VfB Stuttgart53%
×Draw21%
Paris FC26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfB Stuttgart
2.21
Paris FC
1.50

VfB Stuttgart creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart
3.43
Paris FC
1.71

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart
1.29
Paris FC
1.00

finishing

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw
74%
VfB Stuttgart or Paris FC
79%
Draw or Paris FC
47%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+
32%
Paris FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals
89%
VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
65%
VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals
38%
Paris FC 1+ goals
78%
Paris FC 2+ goals
44%
Paris FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)
67%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 3.43 + Paris FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Paris FC attack 1.71 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more
53%
level
21%
Paris FC scores more
26%

VfB Stuttgart at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 35% of VfB Stuttgart’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 33% of Paris FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • VfB Stuttgart and Paris FC have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stuttgart
WLDWD
FC
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VfB Stuttgart host Paris FC

August 1, 2026: VfB Stuttgart take on Paris FC in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.