Veres Rivne 2–2 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zorya Luhansk

11/5/2023

Premier League · Round 13Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Veres Rivne40%

×Draw25%

Zorya Luhansk35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.39

Veres Rivne

1.49

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.12

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.12

Zorya Luhansk

1.44

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.33

Zorya Luhansk

1.86

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.72scores less

Zorya Luhansk+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

65%

Veres Rivne or Zorya Luhansk

75%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

60%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

19%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

77%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

44%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

19%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

75%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

40%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

53%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 5 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.86 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.12 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Veres Rivne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

40%

level

25%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

35%

Veres Rivne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff