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Veres Rivne vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
3/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Veres Rivne17%
×Draw22%
Dynamo Kyiv61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
0.90
Dynamo Kyiv
1.91

Dynamo Kyiv creates 112% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.12
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

Veres Rivne
1.33
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.72scores less
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
39%
Veres Rivne or Dynamo Kyiv
78%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
83%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
6%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
59%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
23%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
6%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
57%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
22%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 5 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.12 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Veres Rivne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
17%
level
22%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
61%

Dynamo Kyiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Veres Rivne 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv

Veres Rivne and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Rivne.