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Vere United vs Mount Pleasant Academy — Premier League 2019

Vere United
Vere United
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
4/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Wembley Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vere United20%
×Draw26%
Mount Pleasant Academy54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vere United
0.78
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.48

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 90% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 103 away

creates per match

Vere United
0.73
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.68

allows per match

Vere United
1.29
Mount Pleasant Academy
0.83

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par
Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Mount Pleasant Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vere United or draw
46%
Vere United or Mount Pleasant Academy
74%
Draw or Mount Pleasant Academy
80%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+
6%
Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals
54%
Vere United 2+ goals
18%
Vere United 3+ goals
4%
Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
77%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
43%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)
27%
Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Mount Pleasant Academy away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.68 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vere United scores more
20%
level
26%
Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
54%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vere United 0–5 Mount Pleasant Academy

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Vere United 5-0 in Premier League on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Wembley Centre of Excellence in Hayes.