Vere United 0–4 Molynes United: Result & Stats

Vere United

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Molynes United

3/13/2023

Premier League · Round 18Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vere United36%

×Draw28%

Molynes United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vere UnitedExpected goals in this matchMolynes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Vere United

1.17

Molynes United

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 97 away

0.73

creates per match

1.05

1.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Vere United

0.73

Molynes United

1.05

allows per match

Vere United

1.29

Molynes United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par

Molynes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Molynes United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vere United or draw

64%

Vere United or Molynes United

72%

Draw or Molynes United

64%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+

15%

Molynes United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals

69%

Vere United 2+ goals

33%

Vere United 3+ goals

11%

Molynes United 1+ goals

69%

Molynes United 2+ goals

33%

Molynes United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)

50%

Molynes United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Molynes United away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Molynes United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Molynes United attack 1.05 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vere United scores more

36%

level

28%

Molynes United scores more

36%

Vere United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff