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Vere United vs Arnett Gardens — Premier League 2019

Vere United
Vere United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
5/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Wembley Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vere United24%
×Draw26%
Arnett Gardens50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vere United
0.96
Arnett Gardens
1.50

Arnett Gardens creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 103 away

creates per match

Vere United
0.73
Arnett Gardens
1.71

allows per match

Vere United
1.29
Arnett Gardens
1.19

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par
Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Arnett Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vere United or draw
50%
Vere United or Arnett Gardens
74%
Draw or Arnett Gardens
76%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+
8%
Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals
62%
Vere United 2+ goals
25%
Vere United 3+ goals
7%
Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
78%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
44%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)
33%
Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vere United scores more
24%
level
26%
Arnett Gardens scores more
50%

Arnett Gardens at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vere United 2–1 Arnett Gardens

Vere United beat Arnett Gardens 2-1 in Premier League on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Wembley Centre of Excellence in Hayes.