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Veraguas vs Alianza FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Veraguas
Veraguas
Preview
23:15
Alianza FC
Alianza FC
9/13/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 8
Big match
37%
Veraguas
model favours
37%29%34%

Top-of-the-table clash — Veraguas 1 vs Alianza FC 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Veraguas37%
×Draw29%
Alianza FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veraguas
1.17
Alianza FC
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 129 away

creates per match

Veraguas
1.16
Alianza FC
0.97

allows per match

Veraguas
1.23
Alianza FC
1.17

finishing

Veraguas+0.00on par
Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veraguas ↓

Alianza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Veraguas or draw
66%
Veraguas or Alianza FC
71%
Draw or Alianza FC
63%

Winning margin

Veraguas wins by 2+
16%
Alianza FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Veraguas 1+ goals
69%
Veraguas 2+ goals
33%
Veraguas 3+ goals
11%
Alianza FC 1+ goals
67%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
30%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Veraguas (draw refunded)
52%
Alianza FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veraguas at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veraguas attack 1.16 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + Veraguas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Veraguas scores more
37%
level
29%
Alianza FC scores more
34%

Veraguas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Veraguas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Veraguas
DDWDW
FC
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veraguas vs Alianza FC — Match Preview

Veraguas face Alianza FC on September 13, 2026 in this Liga Panameña de Fútbol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.