Diosgyori VTK 2–0 Paks: Result & Stats

Diosgyori VTK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paks

F. Hasani 78'

M. Ivanovski 28'

2/15/2020

League #271 · Round 13Diósgyőri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Diosgyori VTK36%

×Draw24%

Paks40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diosgyori VTKExpected goals in this matchPaks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Diosgyori VTK

1.50

Paks

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Diosgyori VTK

1.33

Paks

1.67

allows per match

Diosgyori VTK

1.50

Paks

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diosgyori VTK+0.00on par

Paks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diosgyori VTK ↓

Paks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Diosgyori VTK or draw

60%

Diosgyori VTK or Paks

76%

Draw or Paks

64%

Winning margin

Diosgyori VTK wins by 2+

17%

Paks wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Diosgyori VTK 1+ goals

78%

Diosgyori VTK 2+ goals

44%

Diosgyori VTK 3+ goals

19%

Paks 1+ goals

79%

Paks 2+ goals

47%

Paks 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Diosgyori VTK (draw refunded)

48%

Paks (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diosgyori VTK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Paks away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diosgyori VTK attack 1.33 + Paks defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Paks attack 1.67 + Diosgyori VTK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Diosgyori VTK scores more

36%

level

24%

Paks scores more

40%

Paks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

34'

38'

54'

55'

66'

70'

Á. Szendrei← D. Kulcsár

72'

H. Tabakovic← M. Ivanovski

77'

J. Windecker← J. Hahn

78'

F. Hasani

83'

T. Egerszegi← D. Márkvárt

Diosgyori

Paks

31

Rácz

30

Szabó

77

▼

Kulcsár

32

Kelemen

11

▼

96

6

71

26

18

9

▼

44

15

25

17

33

28

▼

Pedro

90

Iszlai

14

▼

Márkvárt

9

Kiss

12

⚽

▼

Ivanovski

8

⚽

Hasani

Manager: T. Feczkó

66'▲G. Molnár←▼Rui Pedro

72'▲H. Tabakovic←▼M. Ivanovski

83'▲T. Egerszegi←▼D. Márkvárt

Diosgyori VTK substitutes

16Molnár10Tabakovic22Egerszegi11Cortés48Karan92Orosz99Antal

Manager: G. Osztermájer

55'▲M. Sajbán←▼A. Osváth

70'▲Á. Szendrei←▼D. Kulcsár

77'▲J. Windecker←▼J. Hahn

Paks substitutes

20Sajbán23Szendrei22Windecker5Gévay8Kecskés19Holczer24Poór

Match Recap: Diosgyori VTK vs Paks

Diosgyori VTK beat Paks 2-0 in League #271 on February 15, 2020.

Goals: M. Ivanovski (28'), F. Hasani (78').

The match was played at Diósgyőri Stadion in Miskolc.

Diosgyori VTK vs Paks — League #271 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Diosgyori VTK vs Paks