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Vera vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Vera
Vera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera42%
×Draw29%
Atlético Paso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vera
1.24
Atlético Paso
0.99

Vera creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vera
1.50
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Vera
0.86
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Vera+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vera or draw
71%
Vera or Atlético Paso
71%
Draw or Atlético Paso
58%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals
71%
Vera 2+ goals
35%
Vera 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vera scores more
42%
level
29%
Atlético Paso scores more
29%

Vera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vera vs Atlético Paso

Vera and Atlético Paso drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma in Tenerife.