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Ventura County vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Ventura County
Ventura County
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
5/20/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 5Dignity Health Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ventura County52%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County
2.09
Sporting KC II
1.46

Ventura County creates 43% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ventura County
2.00
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Ventura County
1.73
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw
73%
Ventura County or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
48%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+
31%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals
88%
Ventura County 2+ goals
62%
Ventura County 3+ goals
34%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
77%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
43%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)
66%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 75 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 2.00 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Ventura County defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ventura County scores more
52%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
27%

Ventura County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Ventura County 1–1 Sporting KC II

Ventura County and Sporting KC II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.