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Ventura County vs Portland Timbers II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Ventura County
Ventura County
Preview
23:00
Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
8/23/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageDignity Health Sports Park
Big match
50%
Ventura County
model favours
50%21%29%

73% of Ventura County’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ventura County50%
×Draw21%
Portland Timbers II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County
2.05
Portland Timbers II
1.52

Ventura County creates 35% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ventura County
1.67
Portland Timbers II
1.08

allows per match

Ventura County
1.95
Portland Timbers II
2.44

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par
Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

Portland Timbers II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw
71%
Ventura County or Portland Timbers II
79%
Draw or Portland Timbers II
50%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+
29%
Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals
87%
Ventura County 2+ goals
61%
Ventura County 3+ goals
33%
Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
78%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
45%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)
63%
Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

Portland Timbers II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 1.67 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.05

Portland Timbers II attack 1.08 + Ventura County defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ventura County scores more
50%
level
21%
Portland Timbers II scores more
29%

Ventura County at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 70% of Portland Timbers II’s matches
  • 44% of Ventura County’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
County
LWDWW
II
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ventura County face Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with Ventura County hosting Portland Timbers II. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ventura County host Portland Timbers II at Dignity Health Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.