Ventforet Kofu 2–1 V-varen Nagasaki: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

V-varen Nagasaki

Willian Lira 65'

M. Hasegawa 11'

A. Uenaka 3'

10/23/2021

J2 League · Round 35JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Ventforet Kofu37%

×Draw26%

V-varen Nagasaki37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.30

Ventforet Kofu

1.31

V-varen Nagasaki

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 143 away

1.36

creates per match

1.48

1.12

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.36

V-varen Nagasaki

1.48

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.12

V-varen Nagasaki

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

63%

Ventforet Kofu or V-varen Nagasaki

74%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

63%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

17%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

73%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

38%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

14%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

73%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

37%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

50%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

37%

level

26%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

37%

Ventforet Kofu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

11'

32'

45+1'

53'

59'

65'

74'

H. Nozawa← G. Notsuda

74'

R. Nakamura← M. Hasegawa

74'

H. Kato← Wellington Rato

74'

K. Tokura← Edigar Junio

84'

H. Yamamoto← J. Miyazaki

90'

Y. Naito← Willian Lira

Ventforet

V-varen

1

26

23

24

16

28

▼

Rato

6

César

14

▼

Nagura

22

Kuwasaki

7

▼

Junio

33

⚽

1

40

30

2

8

16

▼

Notsuda

24

Yamada

17

Araki

41

⚽

▼

Hasegawa

10

⚽

▼

Lira

19

▼

Miyazaki

Manager: A. Ito

74'▲H. Nozawa←▼G. Notsuda

74'▲R. Nakamura←▼M. Hasegawa

84'▲H. Yamamoto←▼J. Miyazaki

90'▲Y. Naito←▼Willian Lira

Ventforet Kofu substitutes

6Nozawa15Nakamura4Yamamoto32Naito18Torikai23Sekiguchi21Koizumi

Manager: H. Matsuda

53'▲V. Ibarbo←▼T. Nagura

74'▲H. Kato←▼Wellington Rato

74'▲K. Tokura←▼Edigar Junio

V-varen Nagasaki substitutes

32Ibarbo15Kato27Tokura8Isomura11Tamada18Yamazaki31Harada