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Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi SC — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
3/14/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Ventforet Kofu44%
×Draw28%
Tochigi SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.28
Tochigi SC
0.94

Ventforet Kofu creates 36% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 148 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Tochigi SC
0.76

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Tochigi SC
1.20

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Tochigi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
73%
Ventforet Kofu or Tochigi SC
72%
Draw or Tochigi SC
56%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
20%
Tochigi SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
72%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
37%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
14%
Tochigi SC 1+ goals
61%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
24%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
62%
Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
44%
level
28%
Tochigi SC scores more
27%

Ventforet Kofu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi SC

Ventforet Kofu beat Tochigi SC 2-1 in J2 League on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at JIT Recycle Ink Stadium in Kofu.