Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Jubilo Iwata: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jubilo Iwata

D. Ogawa 51' (OG)

M. Matsumoto 55'

11/21/2020

J2 League · Round 35Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ventforet Kofu36%

×Draw27%

Jubilo Iwata37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchJubilo Iwata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Ventforet Kofu

1.23

Jubilo Iwata

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 84 away

1.36

creates per match

1.42

1.12

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.36

Jubilo Iwata

1.42

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.12

Jubilo Iwata

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Jubilo Iwata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

63%

Ventforet Kofu or Jubilo Iwata

73%

Draw or Jubilo Iwata

64%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

15%

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

71%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

35%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

13%

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

72%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

36%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

49%

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.42 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

36%

level

27%

Jubilo Iwata scores more

37%

Jubilo Iwata at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

H. Kanazono← Dudu

51'

D. OgawaOwn goal

55'

M. Matsumoto

56'

N. Miki← S. Nakano

56'

Lulinha← K. Omori

68'

R. Uehara← H. Yamada

69'

H. Yamamoto← S. Araki

72'

D. Ogawa

78'

Rafael Marques← H. Nozawa

78'

S. Ota← R. Matsuda

Ventforet

Jubilo

1

Hatta

3

Oi

24

🥅

38

50

23

8

▼

Omori

10

▼

Yamada

14

⚽

Matsumoto

15

Ito

16

▼

31

39

3

5

8

6

▼

Nozawa

11

Izumisawa

14

Takeda

21

▼

Araki

10

▼

Dudu

16

▼

Matsuda

Manager: A. Ito

30'▲H. Kanazono←▼Dudu

69'▲H. Yamamoto←▼S. Araki

78'▲Rafael Marques←▼H. Nozawa

78'▲S. Ota←▼R. Matsuda

Ventforet Kofu substitutes

17Kanazono4Yamamoto9Marques18Ota20Nakashio33Koizumi27Kobayashi

Manager: M. Suzuki

56'▲N. Miki←▼S. Nakano

56'▲Lulinha←▼K. Omori

68'▲R. Uehara←▼H. Yamada

Jubilo Iwata substitutes

19Miki20Lulinha7Uehara5Sakurauchi21Sugimoto27Yoshinaga33Fujita