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Ventforet Kofu vs Iwaki — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Iwaki
Iwaki
3/20/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 5JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ventforet Kofu39%
×Draw27%
Iwaki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.31
Iwaki
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Iwaki
1.32

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Iwaki
1.25

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Iwaki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Iwaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
66%
Ventforet Kofu or Iwaki
73%
Draw or Iwaki
61%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
17%
Iwaki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
73%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
38%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
14%
Iwaki 1+ goals
70%
Iwaki 2+ goals
34%
Iwaki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
53%
Iwaki (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Iwaki away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Iwaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Iwaki attack 1.32 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
39%
level
27%
Iwaki scores more
34%

Ventforet Kofu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ventforet Kofu vs Iwaki

Ventforet Kofu and Iwaki drew 1-1 in J2 League on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at JIT Recycle Ink Stadium in Kofu.