Ventforet Kofu 1–0 Ehime FC: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ehime FC

7/13/2019

J2 League · Round 22Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium (Kofu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Ventforet Kofu48%

×Draw26%

Ehime FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchEhime FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.05

Ventforet Kofu

1.50

Ehime FC

1.05

Ventforet Kofu creates 43% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 123 away

1.36

creates per match

0.98

1.12

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.36

Ehime FC

0.98

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.12

Ehime FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Ehime FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

73%

Ventforet Kofu or Ehime FC

74%

Draw or Ehime FC

52%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

24%

Ehime FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

78%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

44%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

19%

Ehime FC 1+ goals

65%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

28%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

64%

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

48%

level

26%

Ehime FC scores more

27%

Ventforet Kofu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff