Venezia U19 1–0 Monza U19: Result & Stats

Venezia U19

FT

1 – 0

Monza U19

10/31/2020

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 4Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Venezia U1942%

×Draw23%

Monza U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venezia U19Expected goals in this matchMonza U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.51

Venezia U19

1.68

Monza U19

1.51

Venezia U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 41 away

1.76

creates per match

1.73

1.29

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Venezia U19

1.76

Monza U19

1.73

allows per match

Venezia U19

1.29

Monza U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezia U19+0.00on par

Monza U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia U19 ↓

Monza U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Venezia U19 or draw

65%

Venezia U19 or Monza U19

77%

Draw or Monza U19

58%

Winning margin

Venezia U19 wins by 2+

22%

Monza U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Venezia U19 1+ goals

81%

Venezia U19 2+ goals

50%

Venezia U19 3+ goals

24%

Monza U19 1+ goals

78%

Monza U19 2+ goals

44%

Monza U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Monza U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Monza U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia U19 attack 1.76 + Monza U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Monza U19 attack 1.73 + Venezia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Venezia U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Monza U19 scores more

35%

Venezia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Venezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff