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Vendsyssel FF vs Hobro — 1. Division 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hobro
Hobro
3/16/20241. Division1. Division · Round 22Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Vendsyssel FF41%
×Draw27%
Hobro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.35
Hobro
1.15

Vendsyssel FF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 96 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.31
Hobro
1.16

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.14
Hobro
1.40

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Hobro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
68%
Vendsyssel FF or Hobro
73%
Draw or Hobro
59%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
19%
Hobro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
74%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
39%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
15%
Hobro 1+ goals
68%
Hobro 2+ goals
32%
Hobro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
56%
Hobro (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.40 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.31 + Hobro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hobro attack 1.16 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
41%
level
27%
Hobro scores more
32%

Vendsyssel FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vendsyssel FF vs Hobro

Vendsyssel FF and Hobro drew 1-1 in 1. Division on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.