Venados FC 1–2 Celaya: Result & Stats

Venados FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Celaya

7/28/2021

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Venados FC43%

×Draw27%

Celaya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venados FCExpected goals in this matchCelaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.11

Venados FC

1.38

Celaya

1.11

Venados FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 119 away

1.63

creates per match

1.15

1.08

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Venados FC

1.63

Celaya

1.15

allows per match

Venados FC

1.08

Celaya

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par

Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Celaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw

70%

Venados FC or Celaya

73%

Draw or Celaya

57%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+

20%

Celaya wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals

75%

Venados FC 2+ goals

40%

Venados FC 3+ goals

16%

Celaya 1+ goals

67%

Celaya 2+ goals

30%

Celaya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)

59%

Celaya (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Celaya attack 1.15 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Venados FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Celaya scores more

30%

Venados FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff