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Velo Clube U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
Preview
18:00
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
40%
Velo Clube U20
model favours
40%24%36%

33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Velo Clube U2040%
×Draw24%
Botafogo SP U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velo Clube U20
1.56
Botafogo SP U20
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

Velo Clube U20
1.42
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

allows per match

Velo Clube U20
1.26
Botafogo SP U20
1.71

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw
64%
Velo Clube U20 or Botafogo SP U20
76%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
60%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
20%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
79%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
46%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
21%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
77%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
43%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more
40%
level
24%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
36%

Velo Clube U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Velo Clube U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Velo Clube U20 and Botafogo SP U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDDLD
U20
LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Velo Clube U20 face Botafogo SP U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Velo Clube U20 hosting Botafogo SP U20. Match starts September 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.