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Velké Meziříčí vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
CANC
15:00
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
5/17/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Velké Meziříčí47%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Otrokovice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
1.91
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.49

Velké Meziříčí creates 28% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 68 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.83
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.60
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
70%
Velké Meziříčí or Viktoria Otrokovice
78%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
53%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
26%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
85%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
57%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
30%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
44%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
61%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.83 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.91

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
47%
level
22%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
30%

Velké Meziříčí at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Velké Meziříčí host Viktoria Otrokovice

May 17, 2020: Velké Meziříčí take on Viktoria Otrokovice in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Velké Meziříčí host Viktoria Otrokovice at Stadión U Tržiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.