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Veľké Ludince vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
1 – 2
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
10/11/20203. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 10Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Veľké Ludince51%
×Draw25%
Kalná nad Hronom24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
1.63
Kalná nad Hronom
1.04

Veľké Ludince creates 57% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
76%
Veľké Ludince or Kalná nad Hronom
75%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
49%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
27%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
80%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
48%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
22%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
65%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
28%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
68%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
51%
level
25%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
24%

Veľké Ludince at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veľké Ludince vs Kalná nad Hronom

Kalná nad Hronom beat Veľké Ludince 2-1 in 3. liga - West on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince in Veľké Ludince.