Velká Bíteš 0–1 Humpolec: Result & Stats

Velká Bíteš

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Humpolec

3/27/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 15Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Velká Bíteš52%

×Draw23%

Humpolec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velká BítešExpected goals in this matchHumpolec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.19

Velká Bíteš

1.84

Humpolec

1.19

Velká Bíteš creates 55% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

1.28

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Velká Bíteš

1.67

Humpolec

1.10

allows per match

Velká Bíteš

1.28

Humpolec

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par

Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Humpolec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw

75%

Velká Bíteš or Humpolec

77%

Draw or Humpolec

48%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+

29%

Humpolec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals

84%

Velká Bíteš 2+ goals

55%

Velká Bíteš 3+ goals

28%

Humpolec 1+ goals

70%

Humpolec 2+ goals

33%

Humpolec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)

68%

Humpolec (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.84

Humpolec attack 1.10 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more

52%

level

23%

Humpolec scores more

25%

Velká Bíteš at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff