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Velká Bíteš vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
PST
14:00
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 16Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš (Velká Bíteš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Velká Bíteš58%
×Draw21%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velká Bíteš
2.15
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.23

Velká Bíteš creates 75% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

creates per match

Velká Bíteš
1.67
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Velká Bíteš
1.28
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw
79%
Velká Bíteš or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
79%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
42%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
36%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
88%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
63%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
36%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
71%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
35%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
73%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.15

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more
58%
level
21%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
21%

Velká Bíteš at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Velká Bíteš host Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

March 29, 2020: Velká Bíteš take on Bystřice nad Pernštejnem in 4. liga - Divizie D. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Velká Bíteš host Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš (Velká Bíteš).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.