Velež 3–0 Zrinjski: Result & Stats | Premijer Liga

Velež

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zrinjski

11/13/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 14Stadion Rođeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Velež34%

×Draw29%

Zrinjski37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeležExpected goals in this matchZrinjski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.17

Velež

1.11

Zrinjski

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 109 away

1.51

creates per match

1.45

0.88

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Velež

1.51

Zrinjski

1.45

allows per match

Velež

0.88

Zrinjski

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velež+0.00on par

Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

Zrinjski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Velež or draw

63%

Velež or Zrinjski

71%

Draw or Zrinjski

66%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+

14%

Zrinjski wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals

67%

Velež 2+ goals

30%

Velež 3+ goals

10%

Zrinjski 1+ goals

69%

Zrinjski 2+ goals

33%

Zrinjski 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)

48%

Zrinjski (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.11

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Velež scores more

34%

level

29%

Zrinjski scores more

37%

Zrinjski at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff