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Velez Sarsfield vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
I. Gómez 74'
6/12/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Velez Sarsfield50%
×Draw29%
Platense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.32
Platense
0.76

Velez Sarsfield creates 74% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.44
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
0.79
Platense
1.21

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
78%
Velez Sarsfield or Platense
71%
Draw or Platense
50%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
24%
Platense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
73%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
38%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
15%
Platense 1+ goals
53%
Platense 2+ goals
18%
Platense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
70%
Platense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.44 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Platense attack 0.73 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
50%
level
29%
Platense scores more
22%

Velez Sarsfield at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
L. PrattoVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · F
7.9

Match Events

34'
Haibrany Ruiz Diaz
46'
J. Pignani← G. Bergessio
46'
J. Esquivel← I. Schor
56'
H. Canteros← A. Sabella
60'
M. Perrone← N. Garayalde
66'
J. Soñora← L. Orellano
67'
A. Bouzat← S. Cáseres
74'
I. Gómez↳ N. Morgantini
77'
Maximo Perrone
85'
H. Tijanovich← M. Zárate
86'
M. Pellegrino← A. Osorio
86'
J. Fernández← L. Jara
89'
F. Gino← I. Gómez
90+1'
Matías de los Santos

Possession

63%Velez

Shots

16Velez

Pass accuracy

55%Velez

Statistics

VelezPlatense
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots10
13Corners4
16Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots10
4On Target2
7Off Target4
5Blocked4
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
488Total Passes285
393Accurate Passes184
81%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Velez Sarsfield vs Platense

Platense beat Velez Sarsfield 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 12, 2022.

Goals: I. Gómez (74').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.