Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veleshta vs Korab Debar — Second League 2019

Veleshta
Veleshta
FT
1 – 1
Korab Debar
Korab Debar
9/26/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 5Stadion Velešta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Veleshta52%
×Draw26%
Korab Debar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleshta
1.52
Korab Debar
0.90

Veleshta creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Veleshta
1.41
Korab Debar
0.86

allows per match

Veleshta
0.94
Korab Debar
1.62

finishing

Veleshta+0.00on par
Korab Debar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleshta ↓

Korab Debar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veleshta or draw
78%
Veleshta or Korab Debar
74%
Draw or Korab Debar
48%

Winning margin

Veleshta wins by 2+
27%
Korab Debar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Veleshta 1+ goals
78%
Veleshta 2+ goals
45%
Veleshta 3+ goals
20%
Korab Debar 1+ goals
59%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
23%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Veleshta (draw refunded)
70%
Korab Debar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleshta at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Korab Debar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleshta attack 1.41 + Korab Debar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Korab Debar attack 0.86 + Veleshta defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Veleshta scores more
52%
level
26%
Korab Debar scores more
22%

Veleshta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Veleshta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veleshta vs Korab Debar

Veleshta and Korab Debar drew 1-1 in Second League on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Velešta in Veleshta.