Veles 1–1 Novosibirsk: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novosibirsk

E. Pesikov 25'

K. Folmer 41' (pen)

10/26/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Veles52%

×Draw26%

Novosibirsk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchNovosibirsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.93

Veles

1.55

Novosibirsk

0.93

Veles creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

0.89

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Veles

1.49

Novosibirsk

0.96

allows per match

Veles

0.89

Novosibirsk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Novosibirsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Veles or draw

77%

Veles or Novosibirsk

74%

Draw or Novosibirsk

48%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

27%

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

79%

Veles 2+ goals

46%

Veles 3+ goals

20%

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

61%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

24%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

70%

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.49 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Veles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Veles scores more

52%

level

26%

Novosibirsk scores more

23%

Veles at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

E. Pesikov

36'

Y. Ivakin

40'

A. Shitov

41'

K. FolmerPenalty

57'

I. Umarov← M. Nasibov

57'

O. Smirnov← I. Karpuk

63'

N. Rozhkov← A. Kobyalko

63'

S. Narylkov← V. Laptev

77'

I. Dibirov← Y. Ivakin

77'

A. Arustamyan← E. Pesikov

90'

K. Folmer

90+1'

A. Koloskov← A. Shubin

90'

A. Orlov← K. Folmer

Veles

Novosibirsk

16

21

15

19

49

9

⚽

▼

Folmer

20

▼

32

12

11

90

▼

1

2

95

3

81

10

▼

Ivakin

55

Konyukhov

17

⚽

▼

Pesikov

97

▼

Shubin

90

▼

Karpuk

25

▼

Nasibov

Manager: K. Alshevskiy

57'▲I. Umarov←▼M. Nasibov

57'▲O. Smirnov←▼I. Karpuk

77'▲I. Dibirov←▼Y. Ivakin

77'▲A. Arustamyan←▼E. Pesikov

90+1'▲A. Koloskov←▼A. Shubin

Veles substitutes

7Umarov77Smirnov11Dibirov70Arustamyan5Koloskov8Sedov18Dzhamuev23Gioev31Matveev85Zheymo

Manager: V. Trenev

63'▲N. Rozhkov←▼A. Kobyalko

63'▲S. Narylkov←▼V. Laptev

90'▲A. Orlov←▼K. Folmer

Novosibirsk substitutes

10Rozhkov22Narylkov77Orlov6Kuzmin7Konev14Semenenko17Kasatkin18Meksh35Kiselev

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Veles 1–1 Novosibirsk

Veles and Novosibirsk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Pesikov (25'), K. Folmer (41' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.

Veles vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Veles 1–1 Novosibirsk