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Veles vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
8/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Avangard Stadium
40%
Nizhny Novgorod
model favours
34%25%40%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Veles34%
×Draw25%
Nizhny Novgorod40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.46

Nizhny Novgorod creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Veles
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.33

allows per match

Veles
1.58
Nizhny Novgorod
1.33

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veles or draw
60%
Veles or Nizhny Novgorod
75%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
66%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
15%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
74%
Veles 2+ goals
38%
Veles 3+ goals
15%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
77%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
43%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
46%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.33 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.33 + Veles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more
34%
level
25%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
40%

Nizhny Novgorod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Nizhny Novgorod

August 19, 2026: Veles take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Nizhny Novgorod at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.