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Veles vs Enisey — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
15:00
Enisey
Enisey
5/8/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Avangard Stadium
Big match
42%
Veles
model favours
42%31%27%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Veles42%
×Draw31%
Enisey27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.12
Enisey
0.84

Veles creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

creates per match

Veles
0.80
Enisey
1.08

allows per match

Veles
0.60
Enisey
1.44

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Veles or draw
73%
Veles or Enisey
69%
Draw or Enisey
58%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
17%
Enisey wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
67%
Veles 2+ goals
31%
Veles 3+ goals
10%
Enisey 1+ goals
57%
Enisey 2+ goals
21%
Enisey 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
61%
Enisey (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 0.80 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.12

Enisey attack 1.08 + Veles defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Veles scores more
42%
level
31%
Enisey scores more
27%

Veles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Enisey

May 8, 2027: Veles take on Enisey in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Enisey at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.