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Veles vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
8/22/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Avangard Stadium
45%
Veles
model favours
45%32%23%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
74%
under 2.5 goals
33%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veles45%
×Draw32%
Arsenal Tula23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.08
Arsenal Tula
0.68

Veles creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 37 away

creates per match

Veles
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.92

allows per match

Veles
0.43
Arsenal Tula
1.16

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Veles or draw
77%
Veles or Arsenal Tula
68%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
55%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
66%
Veles 2+ goals
29%
Veles 3+ goals
10%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
49%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
15%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
66%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.00 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Arsenal Tula attack 0.92 + Veles defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Veles scores more
45%
level
32%
Arsenal Tula scores more
23%

Veles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Arsenal Tula

August 22, 2026: Veles take on Arsenal Tula in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Arsenal Tula at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.