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Vejle vs Odense — Superliga 2018

Vejle
Vejle
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Odense
Odense
3/10/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21Vejle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Vejle40%
×Draw25%
Odense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejle
1.52
Odense
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 117 away

creates per match

Vejle
1.41
Odense
1.29

allows per match

Vejle
1.54
Odense
1.62

finishing

Vejle+0.00on par
Odense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

Odense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vejle or draw
65%
Vejle or Odense
75%
Draw or Odense
60%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+
19%
Odense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals
78%
Vejle 2+ goals
45%
Vejle 3+ goals
20%
Odense 1+ goals
76%
Odense 2+ goals
41%
Odense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)
53%
Odense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

Odense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 1.41 + Odense defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Odense attack 1.29 + Vejle defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vejle scores more
40%
level
25%
Odense scores more
35%

Vejle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vejle vs Odense

Odense beat Vejle 1-0 in Superliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Vejle Stadion in Vejle.