Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Vegalta Sendai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

H. Ishii 90'

9/25/2021

J1 League · Round 30Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vegalta Sendai42%

×Draw27%

Tokushima Vortis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vegalta SendaiExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Vegalta Sendai

1.37

Tokushima Vortis

1.14

Vegalta Sendai creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 22 away

1.06

creates per match

0.77

1.50

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.06

Tokushima Vortis

0.77

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.50

Tokushima Vortis

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw

69%

Vegalta Sendai or Tokushima Vortis

73%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

58%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

20%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

75%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

40%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

16%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

68%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

57%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.06 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.77 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more

42%

level

27%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

31%

Vegalta Sendai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

H. Ishii

Tokushima Vortis · D

7.9

Match Events

61'

Y. Kakita← K. Ichimi

67'

R. Kida← K. Sekiguchi

67'

T. Nishimura← C. Togashi

70'

Kyohei Yoshino

72'

T. Mase← C. Kato

78'

S. Nakahara← Y. Matsushita

78'

Felippe Cardoso← S. Akasaki

83'

Diego← S. Fukuoka

83'

Y. Konishi← T. Suzuki

90+2'

J. Fujita← K. Iwao

90'

H. Ishii

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VegaltaTokushima

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots8

4Corners4

17Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots8

1On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

394Total Passes590

287Accurate Passes489

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Vegalta Sendai 1-0 in J1 League on September 25, 2021.

Goals: H. Ishii (90').

Tokushima Vortis controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai in Sendai.

Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis