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Vega Real vs Moca — Liga Mayor 2020

Vega Real
Vega Real
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Moca
Moca
8/21/2022Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Championship Round - 7Estadio Olímpico La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Vega Real38%
×Draw28%
Moca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vega Real
1.22
Moca
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

creates per match

Vega Real
1.30
Moca
1.15

allows per match

Vega Real
1.13
Moca
1.14

finishing

Vega Real+0.00on par
Moca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vega Real ↓

Moca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vega Real or draw
66%
Vega Real or Moca
72%
Draw or Moca
62%

Winning margin

Vega Real wins by 2+
16%
Moca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vega Real 1+ goals
70%
Vega Real 2+ goals
34%
Vega Real 3+ goals
12%
Moca 1+ goals
68%
Moca 2+ goals
32%
Moca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vega Real (draw refunded)
53%
Moca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vega Real at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Moca away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vega Real attack 1.30 + Moca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Moca attack 1.15 + Vega Real defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vega Real scores more
38%
level
28%
Moca scores more
34%

Vega Real at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vega Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vega Real 2 – 2 Moca

Vega Real and Moca drew 2-2 in Liga Mayor on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico La Vega in Concepción de La Vega.