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Vega Real vs Atlético Pantoja — Liga Mayor 2020

Vega Real
Vega Real
FT
1 – 1
Atlético Pantoja
Atlético Pantoja
4/12/2023Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 3Estadio Olímpico La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Vega Real35%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pantoja40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vega Real
1.31
Atlético Pantoja
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

creates per match

Vega Real
1.30
Atlético Pantoja
1.72

allows per match

Vega Real
1.13
Atlético Pantoja
1.32

finishing

Vega Real+0.00on par
Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vega Real ↓

Atlético Pantoja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vega Real or draw
60%
Vega Real or Atlético Pantoja
74%
Draw or Atlético Pantoja
65%

Winning margin

Vega Real wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vega Real 1+ goals
73%
Vega Real 2+ goals
38%
Vega Real 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vega Real (draw refunded)
47%
Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vega Real at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Atlético Pantoja away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vega Real attack 1.30 + Atlético Pantoja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.72 + Vega Real defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vega Real scores more
35%
level
26%
Atlético Pantoja scores more
40%

Atlético Pantoja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Vega Real 1–1 Atlético Pantoja

Vega Real and Atlético Pantoja drew 1-1 in Liga Mayor on April 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico La Vega in Concepción de La Vega.